Bell to break Brown's reign?
The 2007 edition of Ironman New Zealand was a massive battle between Bell and Brown as the two ran shoulder to shoulder for 38 kilometres before Brown surged away to win. This year might not be too different. The men's event has assembled a deep field and although Bell and Brown look to have the form, there are a few others to nudging for consideration.
New Zealand contenders Bryan Rhodes and Kieran Doe are similar athletes in that they swim and bike well, however they may fall short on the run to Brown, who has run a 2.45 (2001) on the course. Lothar Leder, winner in '97, is a good racer and a great guy, but his recent form hasn't been what it once was and he might not have it to make an impact on Saturday. Pete Jacobs will swim well, but if previous races are anything to go by, that might just be the highlight of the day for Jacobs. Of the 35 professionals that will line up for the day, Leder, Rhodes, Doe and Brown are only four who will get close to the win.
The women's race is really a case of Joanna Lawn and Joanna Lawn. Like Faris Al-Sultan at Ironman Malaysia last week (see our wrap up), Lawn will have the race to lose. The women's field runs to a relatively small group of 14 athletes, and given that Lawn has had a mortgage on this race since 2003, it's going to be hard to see her challenged ... but then, we've been surprised before (well, regularly actually) and anything can happen out there.
The shoot-out behind Lawn will be a good one as Gina Ferguson and Bella Comberford have been in good form according to the word from Taupo. Jo Bennett is another who may challenge for a podium. Bennett recently come off a 13 month break to race at 70.3 Geelong where she showed she's on track to race well. Bennett will have got a lot from that race and always shows up ready to go. My smokey for this race though is WA's Kate Bevilaqua. Kate's a pure racer and is an athlete on the rise. If she is on, look out for her to give Lawn a scare during the marathon.
Ok, so here we go again ... our famous firstoffthebike.com fearless predictions for Ironman New Zealand:
Men
- Luke Bell - will run the house down to win his first Ironman.
- Kieran Doe - Kieran will bike well and be able to hang on to the second step.
- Cam Brown - has the record, the crowd and the run leg to do this but will fall short on this one.
Women
- Joanna Lawn - owns this course ... down payment was made in '03, '04, '05 .. you get it.
- Kate Bevilaqua - the pocket rocket, will have a great run.
- Bella Comberford - a cool day will sit well with the Brit.
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