The late mail on Tour de France '08
Matt Keenan used to sit alongside me in our radio show days on First Off the Bike. He's cracked the big-time now, co-commentating SBS's Tour coverage alongside the biggest names in cycling, including the likes of Phil Liggett. We catch up to take a look over the field for the '08 Tour de France.
First up let’s look at the Green jersey (jersey awarded for highest accumulated points).
For the Green jersey this year, there are a couple of big names missing. Obviously Tom Boonen isn't going to be able to start the Tour (suspended for testing positive for cocaine). Daniele Bernnati was pretty strong in the Giro d’Italia and won on the Champs Elysees last year but won't be starting because of injury and illness.
I think the man to beat for the Green jersey is going to be Norway's Thor Hushovd. Mark Cavendish may be the fastest when it comes to the sprint finishes in the first week so watch for him to grab a couple of stages. Oscar Freire, the three time world champion, could be a threat as well, but I think the big Norwegian is going to get his second Green jersey at this year’s tour.
For the Australians reading this, what are Robbie McEwen's chances of winning the green?
I don’t think Robbie's going to worry about the green at all. He'll be looking for a stage win in that first week or so, but he's going to be absolutely vital to Cadel Evans' Yellow jersey prospects. McEwen understands the pressure of the Tour de France and how crucial it is to defend the jersey all the way to Paris.
McEwen may just be the linchpin in securing the yellow jersey for Cadel Evans by being the captain on the road, the man who’s calling the shots and making sure the team doesn’t panic or over-react if Evans finds himself defending the Yellow jersey. I think this could be Robbie McEwen’s most important Tour in the context of Australian cycling.
There's no doubt McEwen is one calm cat. What about the Polka Dot jersey (King of the Mountains)? These men like it when the road goes skyward. Who are you tipping for the polka dot?
This will be a difficult one. Last year it was a bit of a surprise with Columbian Mauricio Soler taking it out for the Barloworld team. This year, I think look out for the little Spaniard riding for the Euskaltel-Euskadi team, Samuel Sanchez. He finished third place in the Vuelta (Tour of Spain) last year where he just managed to pip Cadel Evans. He’s the kind of guy you expect to see on the attack . What makes me head towards the Spaniard is the fact that this year’s race goes to the Pyrenees first and the Spaniards will want to show off in front of their home crowds. Particularly the ones who ride for the Euskaltel-Euskadi team. So look for Samuel Sanchez for the Polka Dot jersey.
So you don’t think that someone like a Popovich might be up there, or will he be too busy defending for Cadel Evans?
Popovich is the most selfless cyclist in the peloton. We saw him last year finish in eighth place whilst completely sacrificing himself for Alberto Contador (the overall Tour winner). This year he'll do the same for Cadel Evans. That’s why he’s been hired and that’s why he gets paid what he gets paid. He won’t be thinking of himself.
I’m going to throw up a few names at you or the big one – the Yellow jersey (lowest overall elapsed time). I want to get a little bit of a reaction from you – a bit of word association – let’s start with Alejandro Valverde.
He’ll be on the podium, but I don’t think he can win it. With Valverde, the gap between his very good day and a bad day is significant. He could take time out of Evans, somewhere between 45 seconds to a minute on a stage here or there, but he has the potential to really blow up. I think he'll get up on the podium.
Denis Menchov?
Denis Menchov is one of two guys in this year’s Tour that knows how to win a grand Tour. Two time winner of the Vuelta, I think he’ll take out third in this year’s Tour de France.
Damiano Cunego?
Cunego won the Giro d’italia in 2004. He’d be challenging Denis Menchov for the third spot on the podium. But I think he’s a fourth or fifth, the little Italian. He just can't time trial well enough. He’ll come unstuck in the final time trials.
Any of the Schlecks?
Andy Schleck, I can't wait. Looking forward to it as he’s the big wild card. I think he will win the white jersey (best young rider). I’m a bit of a fan of the Schleck family. Going all the way back I enjoyed Frank’s work in 2006. I love the romance of the Schleck story. The fact that the father rode the Tour in the 60’s and 70’s. Their grandfather rode the Tour before the Second World War. I’d like to see one of the Schleck brothers at least win one of the stages and get into the top five possibly.
And finally – Cadel Evans?
For mine, Cadel is simply the most consistent rider and will win this year.
Well Matt Keenan, we’re looking forward to hearing your work during the Tour here in Australia and also listening to you when you have a chat to us on firstoffthebike.com throughout the course of the Tour. Thanks so much for your time.
My pleasure and I’m looking forward to calling Cadel across the line at the Champs-Elysees in Paris.
Matt's Tour de France '08 Picks:
Top 5 for Yellow jersey
- Cadel Evans
- Alejandro Valverde
- Denis Menchov
- Damiano Cunego
- Andy Schleck
Green jersey
Thor Hushovd
Polka Dot jersey
Samuel Sanchez
